Southwest Monsoon 2026: IMD forecasts below-normal rainfall in Odisha

Bhubaneswar: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted below-normal rainfall in Odisha during the 2026 Southwest Monsoon season.

In the presser meet, IMD Director General Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra informed said the seasonal rainfall (June to September 2026) across the country is likely to be 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ±4%.

The IMD expects normal rainfall over Northeast India, ranging between 94 and 106 per cent of the LPA. However, Central India, South Peninsular India and Northwest India are likely to witness below-normal rainfall, with precipitation levels expected to remain below their respective seasonal averages. Odisha is likely to experience below-normal rainfall this monsoon season.

“During the June to September 2026 period, seasonal rainfall across most parts of the country is most likely to be below normal, with the exception of certain areas in Northwest and Northeast India, the eastern parts of the Southern Peninsula, some adjoining areas of East-Central India, and a few isolated pockets of East India, where rainfall is expected to range from normal to above normal”, he said.

At present, neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are transitioning towards El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Climate model forecasts suggest that El Niño is likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season, the IMD said.

The IMD has warned that the number of heatwave days will be higher than normal in many parts of Odisha along with Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, and pockets of other states.